LAHORE (Kashmir English): Pakistan is likely to witness below-normal rainfall and above-normal temperatures across most of its parts during June and the upcoming three-month period, the Pakistan Meteorological Department (PMD) has forecast.
According to the Met Department, the El Nino phase has reemerged in the Pacific Ocean and is expected to persist in the coming months while the Indian Ocean Dipole remains neutral.
“These climatic conditions may result in the uneven spatial distribution of rainfall across Pakistan.”
As per the weather outlook, intensified heatwaves, and water shortages may increase challenges for agriculture during the three-month period.
The country received an average of 22.4 millimetres of rainfall in May 2026, around 10% below normal levels.
Meanwhile, the mean temperature for the month stood at 29.2 degrees Celsius, which was 0.8 degrees above the long-term average.
In Punjab, 29.7 millimetres of rainfall was recorded during May, which was 19% above normal, while Sindh recorded only 0.3 millimetres, marking a deficit of 91%.
Balochistan remained 71% below normal while Gilgit-Baltistan (G-B) recorded 33% above-normal precipitation.
In its monthly outlook for June 2026, the metrological department said that rainfall was likely to remain near-normal to slightly below-normal across most parts of the country.
The largest deficits in rainfall were expected in Northeastern Punjab, Kashmir, and adjoining areas of Khyber-Pakhtunkhwa (K-P).
In contrast, G-B and upper K-P were likely to receive slightly above-normal rainfall during June, as per the monthly outlook.
Temperatures, meanwhile, were expected to remain above-normal countrywide during the month of June, with the warming trend likely to be more pronounced in G-B, Kashmir, and Northern K-P.
Heatwave conditions may also intensify over the plains of Sindh, Balochistan and Southern Punjab.
According to the PMD, Pakistan received 148 millimetres of rainfall during March-May 2026, which was 26% above-normal.
The average temperature, meanwhile, remained 1 degree Celsius above the long-term average.
During this period, Punjab recorded 31% above-normal rainfall, while the same in Sindh was 106% higher than normal.
During the period between June and August, however, weather patterns were expected to change.
As per the PMD, below-normal rainfall was likely to persist in most parts of Punjab, Sindh, lower K-P, and Balochistan.
Kashmir and GB weather
Northern areas, on the other hand, particularly G-B, Northern K-P, and Kashmir, may receive normal to above-normal rainfall. Northeastern Punjab is expected to experience the largest rainfall deficit during the period.
The PMD warned that reduced rainfall may adversely affect the sowing of Kharif crop as well as early crop development.
At the same time, higher rainfall in the northern parts of the country coupled with accelerated snowmelt, may raise the risk of glacial outburst floods (GLOFs), flash floods, and landslides.
The outlook report for the three-month period also warned that prolonged heat, intermittent rainfall, and increased humidity levels may also up the risk of vector-borne diseases, including dengue.
