WASHINGTON (Kashmir English): Forecasters have warned that a potentially supercharged El Niño is coming this summer, and it could push global temperatures to unprecedented highs.
A “super El Niño” could emerge by the end of this year’s hurricane season, with experts forecasting that the ongoing La Niña is about to finish.
Forecasters warned that a potentially supercharged El Niño is coming this summer, and it could push global temperatures to unprecedented highs.
Last week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s (NOAA) Climate Prediction Center announced that there is a 62% chance of El Niño emerging between June and August. In other words, El Niño is more likely than not this year.
El Niño is the warm phase of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO), a natural climate pattern of atmospheric and sea temperature changes in the tropical Pacific Ocean.
During El Niño, warmer waters gather east of the equatorial Pacific, forcing the jet stream south. This brings warmer and drier conditions to the northern U.S., while the Gulf Coast and southeastern U.S. have an increased risk of flooding.
Sea surface temperatures
The tropical Pacific Ocean is currently in the midst of La Niña, the cold phase of ENSO, when sea surface temperatures fall at least 0.9 degrees Fahrenheit (0.5 degrees Celsius) below the long-term average.
La Niña is expected to end in the coming weeks as the sea warms, according to the latest Climate Prediction Center announcement. El Niño will then occur if sea surface temperatures reach and remain at least 0.9 F above the long-term average.
According to AccuWeather, if El Niño does emerge as anticipated, it could intensify into a “super El Niño.” A super El Niño occurs when sea surface temperatures reach at least 3.6 F (2 C) above the long-term average.
“Intensity is uncertain but there is potential for a moderate to possibly strong El Niño this fall into winter,” Paul Pastelok, a meteorologist and lead U.S. long-range forecaster at AccuWeather, said, per the weather website.
It is to mention that a variety of factors influence the weather and climate. The planet is already warming due to climate change and will continue to do so, regardless of what ENSO is doing.
