ISLAMABAD (Kashmir English): The Government of Pakistan is expected to increase petrol prices by around Rs4.75 per litre in the upcoming fuel price review, while the price of high-speed diesel (HSD) is likely to remain largely unchanged, according to industry estimates.
Officials say the expected revision depends on whether the government decides to impose any additional petroleum levy before issuing the final notification.
According to the latest calculations by the oil industry, the ex-refinery price of petrol is projected to rise from Rs270.03 per litre to Rs274.77 per litre during the next pricing cycle.
Industry sources attributed the increase mainly to a rise in international Free on Board (FOB) gasoline prices, which climbed from $139.03 per barrel to $143.01 per barrel during the review period.
Although slight reductions in premiums and incidental costs provided some relief, they were insufficient to offset the overall increase. The removal of a previous Pakistan State Oil (PSO) adjustment of Rs1.41 per litre also contributed to the projected hike.
Expected Fuel Prices
| Fuel Type | Current Price | Expected Price | Expected Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Petrol | Rs270.03/litre | Rs274.77/litre | +Rs4.75 |
| High-Speed Diesel | Rs334.74/litre | Rs334.93/litre | +Rs0.20 |
In contrast, high-speed diesel is expected to witness only a marginal increase of around Rs0.20 per litre despite a sharp rise in international diesel prices.
The international FOB price for diesel reportedly increased from $160.41 per barrel to $172.99 per barrel. However, industry officials said the impact was largely neutralised by significant reductions in customs duty and incidental costs.
According to estimates, customs duty alone declined by more than Rs20 per litre, helping maintain relative stability in diesel prices despite international market fluctuations.
The exchange rate remained mostly stable during the review period at around Rs278.9 per US dollar, limiting its effect on domestic fuel prices.
Industry experts noted that petrol consumers are likely to bear the impact of higher global gasoline prices, while diesel users may continue to benefit from policy adjustments aimed at softening price shocks.
Officials added that the final consumer prices will depend on government decisions regarding taxes, petroleum levies, and any last-minute currency fluctuations before the official announcement.
